CMHC says annual pace of housing starts climbed higher

Dated: December 23 2020

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The annual pace of housing starts increased three per cent in October compared with September, Canada Mortgage and Housing Corp. said on Tuesday, although the increase was less than some economists predicted.

The seasonally adjusted annual rate of housing starts rose to 214,875 units last month compared with 208,715 in September, the national housing agency said. Economists surveyed by financial data firm Refinitiv had on average expected an annual rate of 222,000.

CMHC said that single-detached houses in cities such as Toronto and Montreal contributed to the upswing in overall housing starts.

"Homebuilding seems to be normalizing across most of the country, after a sizzling summer," BMO economist Priscilla Thiagamoorthy in a note to clients, reacting to Tuesday’s data.

"While we could see a softer condo market, rising demand for single-detached homes, supported by low interest rates and teleworkers, will still keep the housing market resilient overall."

The annual rate of urban starts rose 3.5 per cent in October to 202,584 units. The pace of urban starts of apartments, condos and other types of multiple-unit housing projects edged down 0.2 per cent to 144,796, while urban starts of single-detached homes rose by 14.3 per cent to 57,788. Rural starts were estimated at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 12,291 units.

"For the last decade, highrise construction fuelled housing starts thanks to millennials and international migrants vying for a little slice of the sky," wrote Thiagamoorthy.

"But now, with immigration flows slowing, and a shift in preference for larger suburban homes, we could see a bit of a slowdown in condo construction."

Overall, the six-month moving average of the monthly seasonally adjusted annual rates of housing starts was 222,734 in October, up from 214,372 in September.

TD economist Rishi Sondhi noted that the Prairies drove October's increase, with strong gains in Manitoba and Alberta, on top of an increase in Ontario.

CHMC’s data on new home building comes on the heels of Monday’s release of existing home resales from the Canadian Real Estate Association. CREA’s data showed October home resales were down from a record high in September, but still more than 30 per cent above last year’s levels. One reason was that people were seeking out suburban houses with more space as the pandemic required people to stay home.

"Relative to other industries, homebuilding has so far breezed through the pandemic, and October's healthy print is yet another example," wrote Sondhi in a note to clients on Tuesday.

"Notably, single-detached starts are beginning to pick up, which suggests that builders may be reacting to the outperformance in detached home sales observed during the pandemic."

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Nov. 17, 2020.

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Steven Axford

Steve is a award winning Realtor in Victoria BC, with his listings selling faster and for top dollar! Growing up in Victoria, BC and has always been active in his community. Steve is a Victoria Cougar....

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