Canadian Real Estate Prices Go Negative For The First Time Since 2009

Dated: 03/19/2019

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Canadian Real Estate Prices Go Negative For The First Time Since 2009

Canadian Real Estate Prices Go Negative For The First Time Since 2009 - 2

Canadian real estate markets are heading into the busy season with negative price growth. Canadian Real Estate Association (CREA) numbers show an annual decline for the price of a benchmark home in February. The decline for the benchmark is the first since 2009, and the first for the index outside of recession.

Canadian Real Estate Prices Drop For The First Time Since 2009

The price of a typical home in Canada made the first annual decline in almost 10 years, last month. The CREA benchmark fell to $615,300 in February, up 0.3% from the month before. Prices are now down 0.13% lower when compared to the same month last year. This is the first annual decline since 2009, and the only one outside of a recession.

Canadian Real Estate Benchmark Change

The 12 month price in change of a typical home across Canada.

Jan 2006May 2006Sep 2006Jan 2007May 2007Sep 2007Jan 2008May 2008Sep 2008Jan 2009May 2009Sep 2009Jan 2010May 2010Sep 2010Jan 2011May 2011Sep 2011Jan 2012May 2012Sep 2012Jan 2013May 2013Sep 2013Jan 2014May 2014Sep 2014Jan 2015May 2015Sep 2015Jan 2016May 2016Sep 2016Jan 2017May 2017Sep 2017Jan 2018May 2018Sep 2018Jan 2019-10-505101520Percent
DateChange
Jan 20069.6
Feb 200610.41
Mar 200611.38
Apr 200612.65
May 200613.98
Jun 200615.02
Jul 200615.7
Aug 200616.16
Sep 200616.42
Oct 200616.03
Nov 200615.97
Dec 200615.53
Jan 200715.33
Feb 200715.35
Mar 200715.07
Apr 200714.59
May 200714.13
Jun 200713.64
Jul 200712.91
Aug 200712.12
Sep 200711.2
Oct 200710.84
Nov 200710.25
Dec 20079.92
Jan 20089.18
Feb 20088.33
Mar 20087.43
Apr 20086.1
May 20084.52
Jun 20082.93
Jul 20081.68
Aug 20080.73
Sep 2008-0.22
Oct 2008-1.38
Nov 2008-2.54
Dec 2008-3.93
Jan 2009-5.29
Feb 2009-6.61
Mar 2009-7.48
Apr 2009-7.24
May 2009-6.52
Jun 2009-5.33
Jul 2009-3.72
Aug 2009-2.16
Sep 2009-0.36
Oct 20091.62
Nov 20093.87
Dec 20096.06
Jan 20108.11
Feb 201010.15
Mar 201011.56
Apr 201011.56
May 201010.77
Jun 20109.47
Jul 20107.89
Aug 20106.19
Sep 20104.81
Oct 20103.76
Nov 20103.01
Dec 20102.43
Jan 20112.05
Feb 20111.75
Mar 20111.8
Apr 20112.13
May 20112.6
Jun 20113.16
Jul 20114
Aug 20114.72
Sep 20114.94
Oct 20115.16
Nov 20114.94
Dec 20114.88
Jan 20124.65
Feb 20124.53
Mar 20124.55
Apr 20124.64
May 20124.61
Jun 20124.39
Jul 20123.91
Aug 20123.58
Sep 20123.45
Oct 20123.31
Nov 20123.12
Dec 20122.99
Jan 20132.72
Feb 20132.5
Mar 20132.34
Apr 20132.25
May 20132.43
Jun 20132.61
Jul 20132.87
Aug 20133.13
Sep 20133.52
Oct 20133.85
Nov 20134.38
Dec 20134.58
Jan 20145.03
Feb 20145.51
Mar 20145.52
Apr 20145.46
May 20145.48
Jun 20145.71
Jul 20145.71
Aug 20145.64
Sep 20145.63
Oct 20145.74
Nov 20145.67
Dec 20145.86
Jan 20155.59
Feb 20155.22
Mar 20155.29
Apr 20155.36
May 20155.38
Jun 20155.52
Jul 20155.87
Aug 20156.16
Sep 20156.44
Oct 20156.48
Nov 20156.83
Dec 20156.94
Jan 20167.39
Feb 20168.14
Mar 20168.9
Apr 201610.06
May 201612.05
Jun 201613.14
Jul 201613.69
Aug 201614.15
Sep 201614.31
Oct 201614.59
Nov 201614.47
Dec 201614.45
Jan 201715.33
Feb 201716.01
Mar 201718.24
Apr 201719.31
May 201717.36
Jun 201715.26
Jul 201712.29
Aug 201710.56
Sep 20179.92
Oct 20179.1
Nov 20178.54
Dec 20178.43
Jan 20187.23
Feb 20186.26
Mar 20183.59
Apr 20181.21
May 20180.85
Jun 20180.85
Jul 20182.21
Aug 20182.54
Sep 20182.28
Oct 20182.33
Nov 20181.98
Dec 20181.63
Jan 20190.79
Feb 2019-0.13

Source: CREA, Better Dwelling.

The annual pace of growth (or lack thereof) is trending lower. The 0.13% decline is small, but lower than the month before. This is the sixth consecutive month of declines, with prices dropping 1.45% over just the past 6 months.

Ontario Real Estate Markets See Biggest Price Gains

The largest annual price gains were all observed in Southern Ontario. Ottawa made the largest gains with a typical home hitting $400,800 in February, up 7.41% from the same month last year. Guelph followed with a typical home reaching $527,300, up 6.84% from last year. Niagara came in third at $393,500, up 6.54% from last year. These markets all trail the national price, and are close to their all-time peak.

Canadian Real Estate Benchmark Price

The price of a typical home in Canada’s largest real estate markets.

Feb 2019Peak$0$200,000$400,000$600,000$800,000$1,000,000$1,200,000VancouverOakville-MiltonFraser ValleyTorontoVictoriaAggregateHamiltonGuelphBarrieCalgaryOttawaNiagaraMontrealEdmontonSaskatoonReginaMoncton
RegionFeb 2019Peak
Vancouver1,016,6001,104,600
Oakville-Milton961,0001,049,600
Fraser Valley822,100885,900
Toronto767,800815,200
Victoria680,800696,100
Aggregate615,300631,100
Hamilton587,300588,300
Guelph527,300530,000
Barrie458,600532,700
Calgary409,800455,500
Ottawa400,800400,800
Niagara393,500393,500
Montreal353,400353,400
Edmonton315,700373,800
Saskatoon282,600317,900
Regina262,800307,700
Moncton177,600184,100

Source: CREA, Better Dwelling.

Western Canadian Real Estate Leads Prices Lower

Real estate markets leading the way lower were all located in Western Canada. The typical home in Vancouver fell to $1,016,600 in February, down 6.1% from last year – the largest drop in the country. Regina did slightly better with prices falling to $262,800, down 5.13% from last year. Edmonton fell to $315,700, 4.49% from last year.

Canadian Real Estate Price Change – 1 Year

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Steven Axford

Steve Axford grew up in Victoria, BC and has always been active in his community. Steve is a Victoria Cougars Hockey Team alumni as well as a Victoria Shamrocks (intermediate) alumni. During his time....

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